September 6, 2014: Let the Games begin

Let the games begin.  Yeah, we already had a game on Thursday, but with 15 games to go, I’m here for some fantasy insight.  For the record, the only guy I really liked in Thursday night’s game was Marshawn Lynch, and he did OK.  Well, that’s not documented, so we’ll make sure to get some of my fantasy Aces in the Hole down now.

I don’t want to just provide a ranking system.  I don’t want to just say Peyton Manning will be great this week.  I want to talk about things that will go OPPOSITE of what the experts think.  Yeah, that’s how I roll… always looking for the unexpected, the underdog, something that everybody will have wrong EXCEPT me.  That’s why I suck in confidence pools… too many of these “genius” picks.  We’ll try it out with some fantasy football… I’ll try not to be too biased to my team.

Taking the opposite also goes the other way too.  So any of these top ranked guys for the week are fair game if I believe they will suck this week.  Let’s start there, and let’s start at QB.  Drew Brees.  Everybody is thinking shootout, and everybody worships Drew Brees and Jimmy Graham.  I don’t think he’ll have as good a game as expected.  Yeah, Atlanta is no defensive stalwart, but they are at home.  Yeah, they will score some points, which could turn this game into a shootout, but I’m not so sure.  Drew Brees finishes outside of the top 10 QBs this week.

As far as a QB that will outperform his ranking, let’s get crazy.  Shaun Hill.  Originally, I thought this was Shaun King, and I couldn’t believe he was still in the league.  OK, I was wrong about that.  The main reason I like the Rams is Jeff Fisher.  Not only is he an ex-Bear, but he’s an outstanding football coach; I was hoping we would get him one day on the sidelines of Soldier Field.  I think he’ll have his team ready, as he always does, and that will translate into a good game for the new QB.  Hill will finish in the top half of fantasy QBs this week.

Talking RBs, let’s stay in St. Louis.  I’m going with Adrian Peterson as my overrated RB of the week.  You don’t think the St. Louis defense will be ready for him?  Yeah, for the year, he may be outstanding, especially with Norv Turner getting the ball in his hands as much as possible.  For this week, he struggles.  He finishes outside the top 15 RBs this week.  I hate to do this, but I will anways.  CJ Spiller is my guy who will shine this week.  He’ll have a solid first half, a big run or two, and will catch some passes in the 2nd half against our beloved.  He will finish in the top 10 this week, not Peterson.
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At WR, most of the top rated guys look like pretty good plays this week.  I’ll go with Antonio Brown as my dud.  He’ll be covered by Cleveland’s top CB, who’s pretty damn good.  This will result in an off game for him, while Big Ben completes 10+ passes to their other wideout, Markus Wheaton, who is on my fantasy team.  I like how this scenario will play out.  That’s my pick to overperform this week.  Brown and Wheaton will switch places… at least for one week.

For the TE position, I think Greg Olsen doesn’t get much this week.  Cam should play, but that won’t matter.  The TB defense will have something to do with that.  Lovie does know defense.  His defense will be good until they have to make adjustments, so I like them to shut down Carolina as a whole in week 1.  Not that Carolina is such an offensive juggernaut, but Olsen takes a dump this week.  Sneaky pick at TE is Levine Toilolo.  Who?  Yeah, he’s the guy replacing the legend of Tony G in Atlanta.  I like Atlanta a lot this week vs New Orleans, and while I hope many balls are thrown Julio Jones’ way, I think Toilolo gets in the party too.  He may have a good year.  Period.

I’m not talking Kickers or Defense here, although I did hype up Tampa a little.  It’s going to be fun to see how these projections play out week to week.  Hopefully I won’t look too stupid.  It really is impossible to predict the future.  The safest way is to go all chalk; pick the top rated guys each week, and call it a day.  Except, what fun is that?  I’d rather go out on a limb, and be either really wrong, or surprisingly right.  All or nothing!

I’m going to shoot for 5 out of 8 predictions right per week.  For you math wizards, that’s 62.5%.  I think that would be tremendous for opposite picks.  I’m guessing I’ll more likely be around 2 out of 8, which is 25%.  Either way, I’m going to have fun with it.  And for those of you who don’t play fantasy, I’m sorry.  Get in the game!  For everybody else, good luck in Week 1 and beyond… unless I play you.  Then, I hope you suck!