September 5, 2014: Bears Bills preview

I plan on doing a preview blog for each Bears game this season, as well as one to recap the game.  It’s going to be hard to pick against the Bears, but… I’m going to stick to my prediction blog that I posted back on April 27.  That will make it easy, as I have already decided the winner of each game 5 months ago.

Here it is:  http://www.thelocalsportstalk.com/april-27-2014-football-in-april/

I’ll do some line analysis, some matchup breakdowns, final score predictions, and my Ace in the Hole.  Without further delay, let’s get to Week 1.

Let me first start off by saying if the Bears lose this game, the season is over.  The reaction to a Bears loss in their home opener vs the hapless Buffalo Bills would be painful.  You know how we are.  We’ll call for Tucker’s head.  Trestman will be on the hot seat.  We’ll talk about how we overpaid for Cutler.  We’ll talk about having no chance to win in Week 2, and the grim prospects of making the playoffs after an almost certain 0-2 start.  I don’t want that.  Let’s not jump off the ledge after Week 1… please, Bears win this bad boy.

The Vegas line sits at Bears -6.5.  This concerns me.  I already told you how I can’t separate my head and heart when gambling, so of course I would be all over the Bears in this game.  I would think most people are, especially because the Bears are a very public team.  The over/under win total of 8.5 for the year also concerns me, because again, that would seem like a no-brainer.  Why are the Bears only getting credit for basically a .500 year?  OK, let’s figure this out.

The Bills are not a good team, however, they have a decent defense, more specifically, they have a good D Line.  This could cause us some trouble.  If they’re able to put pressure on Cutler, and, God forbid, injure him, we would be screwed.  (I think this is part of the reason the over/under win total is low)  This is going to be a concern week in and week out, since all the Bears did to address it was name Jimmy Claussen our backup.  Jimmy fricking Claussen!?!  Meanwhile, a much worthy backup QB, one with past success, one with past success HERE, was just signed by Buffalo.  Why didn’t we feel like that investment was worth it?  I hope we don’t have to answer that question… I hope Cutler stays healthy all year.

Back to this game, Buffalo puts pressure on Cutler, neutralizes Forte, and makes it a long day for the offense.  This is not probable in my estimation, but a possibility.  So if the Bears offense is held to under 20, that means Buffalo only has to score 2 TDs to cover that spread, and more frightening, only score slightly more than that to beat us outright.  How will the Bills offense fare against the horrible Bears defense?

This is what I don’t get:  how the Bears defense became horrible in one year.  Yes, they had a bad year last year.  It was probably the worst defense that I’ve seen in my lifetime… at least for a long, long time.  Why was it so bad?  We do remember that injuries decimated our defense last year right?  We do remember that only 2 years ago the defense played outstanding while trying to carry us.. again?  If you ask me, and even if you don’t, I’ll say the Bears defense will be MUCH improved this year.  No, this is not only because they are my fantasy defense, but I believe that a healthy Bears defense, including Briggs, Peanut, and Tillman, who all missed time last year with injuries, plus the addition of the pieces Allen, Houston, Young, and Fuller, will make for a halfway decent defense.  This is why, I believe the Bears record will be what it is.  A halfway decent defense plus a healthy Cutler= 11 wins.

OK, so we will have a mild test week 1 with CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson in the backfield.  If they run wild, we could be in trouble.  Again, I don’t think this is probable, but a possibility.  EJ Manuel meanwhile, does not scare me at all.  So worst case, we load the box and make them beat us in the air, right?  Right.
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Last but not least is special teams.  This is a mild concern of mine.  This has been an area where the Bears have excelled for as long as I can remember.  I would almost never worry about giving up a kick or punt return.  Will I have to hold my breath every return for the opposition?  At least we can still count on Robbie G knocking through FGs…  If the Bills win the special team battle, and make a big play or two, this game will be close.  This is the option that I am most concerned about.

In conclusion, I am picking the Bears (duh!).  I see it playing out as a closer than expected game in the first half, maybe even with Buffalo ahead.  However, Trestman will make good 2nd half adjustments (something Lovie never did), and the Bears will come out firing to pull out the victory and the cover.

Final Score prediction:  Bears 34 Bills 24

Please feel free to post final score predictions in the comment section.  I will give credit where credit is due if you call it right.  The last part of my weekly preview will be my Ace in the Hole (ty 2 ms & cg).  This is a knockoff of the pick to click, or player of the game, or.. you get the drift.  I like the Poker reference, and love the ultimate Ace in the Hole movie Maverick.  This is the player or players I think will be the Bears MVP(s) of the game, and how they will earn that nod.  This one wasn’t hard to choose.

Ace in the Hole:  Brandon Marshall–>  8 catches, 137 yards, 2 TDs

Please post your Ace in the Hole pick as well.  Again, I will recognize those who are smarter than me.

Let’s have fun with it, and enjoy the start of another football season.  BEAR DOWN!