I follow a lot of guys on Twitter in the sports gambling world. It’s funny to read their stuff sometimes… “mega lock”, “meet me at the bank”, “100 unit play”… haha. How would you label your “play of the day”? If you’re patient enough, and can wait it out, there will come along a game which you absolutely love, one that falls right into your wheelhouse. This is the time to pounce, right? What does “pounce” mean to you?
The college football lines come out on the Sunday after the games for the current weekend conclude. I usually like that tweet from Circa Sports. It’s good to look back on them as the week goes on, and the lines settle in. I’ll browse through them; see if any of them jump out to me. Sometimes there are a few, sometimes one, sometimes none. I’m not looking to “pounce” that very moment anyway, just planting a seed for later in the week’s action. This past weekend, as the lines were released, one popped out: BYU at Central Florida. BYU, the undefeated 11th ranked team in the nation, was a slight favorite, on the road vs underperforming UCF. I loved UCF. OK, let’s see what my guys say.
I’ve mentioned the 3 guys whose opinions I value that I listen to throughout the week, right? First guy comes on my show, Follow the Money, on Mondays; he is Circa Sports Oddsmaker Nick Bogdanovich. Next guy comes on Tuesday; his name is Paul Stone. Finally on Thursday, it’s Brad Powers time. Between those 3 segments (a double with Brad on Thursday), I listen to some valuable back and forth about some of the week’s games. Like I’ve mentioned, I don’t tail anyone blindly… listening to these “experts” talk about the games is part of the information that I will mix together in an effort to come up with some plays for the week. Guess which team all 3 of my guys liked this week? Yep, UCF.
It’s a spot that I love; a ranked team small road favorite over a team that on paper, they appear to be much better than. This line moved throughout the week… I think it was about 4 points, in favor of UCF, who was now the small favorite. I had already bet the game earlier in the week at a good ML price of -115. I placed an initial 2 unit bet on the game; is that my definition of pouncing? Well, no… considering I had two 4 unit plays the previous weekend, going 1-1 on those bigger bets. Should I put more on UCF? I really liked them, and then I hear all my guys like them too… OK, maybe this is too good to be true. I didn’t put any more on them. Still confident in my initial bet, I let it ride. Final Score: BYU 37 UCF 24
This was just the start to the weekend I was looking for… I lost on Wisconsin, but hit on A&M. I had been pretty hot in college football. Thankfully I hit on Georgia last weekend, or these past 2 Saturdays would have been a disaster. Thankfully, I didn’t put more on UCF. This is always the case though… feeling happy I didn’t wager more when I lose, regretting the fact that I didn’t put more on the game when I win. I guess this is the perfect case for money management. That’s the discipline… it ain’t easy.
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