OK, a week after the Super Bowl matchup was set, and plenty of blogs later, do I still feel the same way about the 49ers beating the Chiefs in the Super Bowl? Short answer is yes. I’m not sure if this is a good thing or a bad thing.
A lot of the stuff I’ve been listening to, what the so called “experts” say… very heavy on the Chiefs; I think this is in line with where the public is leaning as well. 78% of the money line bets on Draft Kings are on the Chiefs; 67% of the spread bets are on the Chiefs. Now I’m not a complete contrarian bettor, but I do take that into account, and when it comes to the biggest fixed/bet game of the year, I’m guessing Papa Vegas isn’t taking the L. So, this angle is certainly in my corner, however… nowadays, you can bet so many other things on the Super Bowl. The review of all the props related to this game is nauseating. There is literally almost nothing you can’t bet on. If there is something you want to bet on that is not available, then you can ask for it.. seriously. So all those millions of dollars bet on the big game are spread across a lot of different things. Then, you have the long term bets that Vegas has to worry about. How much money was bet on the Chiefs and Niners at the beginning of the season and along the way to win the Super Bowl? If it’s skewed one way or another, and from what I’ve read, there is more at stake on the Niners, this could come into play. Maybe this all neutralizes the public play that the Chiefs appear to be? Maybe not.
The Chiefs possess many advantages per the experts, such as, coach, QB, defense, and kicker. You don’t need to be an expert to think these things. Surely Shanahan is no slouch, but who wouldn’t take Reid over anybody in this game? Shanahan was part of the 28-3 debacle with the Falcons vs the Patriots; he was also the coach of the Niners last time around vs these Chiefs. Track record doesn’t support him in the big game; 3rd time’s a charm? At QB, I’ve said how much I like Brock Purdy, but nobody in the right mind would say he’s better than Mahomes, especially on the big stage. Experience matters, right? The Niners defense isn’t as good as it’s been; the Chiefs defense has been playing a lot better, although they do have some injuries… The kickers… Harrison, whew… great kicker. Moody? Not so much. You want to rely on Moody to make the big kick/kicks in this one? It’s hard to argue against any of these comparisons. Why then do I still think the Niners will win?
Well, what about the other offense components? The RB, WR, TE, and OL… the Niners hold advantages in 3 out of those 4 categories, right? Pacheco is great, as is Kittle, but CMC and Kelce are the cream of the crop. The WRs are a no brainer advantage for the Niners. I give the OL edge to the Niners too, especially with that guy still probably out for the Chiefs… oh wait, another injury in the trenches for KC? You always have to worry about Mahomes, and you damn well better cover Kelce, but if you can slow down Pacheco… and the SF LBs can stick with Kelce… you want to rely on the KC WRs to make some plays? I’m sure Mahomes will give them a chance to succeed, but if they need to make a big catch, a catch in traffic, reel in a deep ball, toe drag swag one along the sidelines… how you feeling about that? The SF defensive strategy should be to cover up Kelce and stop Pacheco. If Mahomes and the WRs are killing it, then it may be tough sledding for the Niners D. I wouldn’t bet on that.
So there’s a couple reasons for my Niners play. I’m still not done talking about the game. With less than a week to go, I’ll squeeze in at least a couple more, including all my locked in plays; still trying to get to the props… but as of the Monday before the Super Bowl, my initial position is still intact. I hope I’m right.
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