As I continue to fine tune my betting methods, I look for ways to improve. I’m sticking to my money management discipline, although that’s not easy… With 1 unit = $5 right now, it’s tough to be patient; when will I win some real money? Well, it’s all based on the bankroll, and per many experts, 1 unit should be 1% of your bankroll. I’m up just over $400 in a year, so actually, I’m betting a bit more than that at 1.25%, so… thinking when I reach $500 to bump it to $10 per unit, which would be 2%, or double the recommendation. At the end of the day, it’s all about the bankroll… until my bankroll multiplies, I will stand pat… this is part of a supplemental income/retirement plan not a get rich quick scheme… haha.
Do I bet on too many games? That is my other question. I bet on more games in January than I ever have. There were 147 bets placed during the month; I came out a little down after a brutal stretch, but not too bad. But I have to think… did I play too many? It should be about quality not quantity; that takes patience of course… another difficult quality to possess. If I look at a game, I may not have an opinion and/or it may be an immediate “no-play”. However, if I read some details about a game, I have a lean… it’s almost inevitable. How do I determine when a lean becomes a play? Good question… something I’m continuing to tweak.
Take for example the past 2 nights in the NBA. I was 14-2 on my leans… of course, would have been great if ALL of those were plays. Out of 16 leans, I picked 2 games to play; no, I didn’t pick the 2 losses… haha. I was 2-0 in the NBA the past 2 nights, but could have been much, much better. Of course, I don’t always go on a 14-2 stretch; there’s the catch. There are thoughts to press when you’re winning; capitalize on a good run, maximizing the return on a hot streak. It reminds me of blackjack. After a win, double your bet, and continue to do so, until you lose. When you lose, return to your regular bet. That worked just fine in blackjack that afternoon in Vegas, but this is sports betting, and although I get hot, I get cold too… like right after a hot streak. How do I plan for that? When will my hot streak end? When do I go back to my normal play? It’s tough to determine. There are nights when I do great; there are nights when I can’t pick 1 winner. Figuring out how to normalize that… and slant towards the great… that is a key to my sustained success.
It’s good to talk through this, instead of just going over it in my head. The cool thing about sports betting is that you’re always learning, well, at least that’s how it should be. Will there be a time when I “perfect” this? Probably not, which is tough for me, because I’m a perfectionist. However, if I could get to a point where I’m winning at an X% clip… and that means an X % ROI… well, that could work. We march on
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