It was a blood bath on Sunday; actually, it could have been a lot worse. 9 units in total on the Niners in the Super Bowl on Sunday. It was my biggest play of the year thus far, and honestly, may be the biggest one since I’ve started down this path about a year ago. Was it smart to bet this much on the big game? That’s debateable.
I felt really strong about this game, but money management tells me to keep my units consistent. Still, I know this was more than just a “1 unit” play. Yeah, I got sucked into the Super Bowl hype, and piled on a bit. Maybe I should have capped it at 5 units. I should determine what my max play would be. Maybe 10 units? 10 units, if 1 unit is 1% of my bankroll, would be 10% of my bankroll on 1 game; too much? Maybe.
I’m still figuring this out, learning lessons for sure. I don’t regret the play; I think I should have made it a 5 unit play, and left it at that. 5 units should be my biggest play; let’s just establish that going forward. Where did I go wrong in the handicap of this game? Going against the public is usually a solid part of my strategy, more so in the big game. Was there more liability on the Niners than I thought, due to pre and in season bets? Although the percentages favored the Chiefs, the dollars were more even than I thought? I thought the Niners were the more talented unit, the better team throughout the year, but the Chiefs were playing their best at the right time of the year. There is no point in the season where they would have been higher ranked than right now. The Mahomes/NFL Golden Boy factor… I guess I underestimated that. It’s all easy to say looking back… yet, should be part of this learning process. This should be part of me rebounding, coming back stronger.
The bad news is that there is no more NFL games to bet on; that’s a blessing in disguise considering how I fared in the 2nd half of the season. The good news? There will remain a ton to bet on every day in the NBA, NHL, and College Basketball, and soon enough, the MLB. This train keeps going; it doesn’t stop.
Let’s just not try to get it all back in one shot. Let’s keep doing what we’re doing, making slow & steady progress. No need to get crazy. Let’s take the loss like a man, and get back at it. It’s hard though. $5 per game, still taking baby steps… Sticking to the money management principles isn’t easy… If I increased my bankroll… yeah, maybe that’s it. We did win $375 on squares during the game, so technically won money on the game… I took out my initial investment and didn’t want to put any more of “my money” into this. Wanted to build my bankroll from the ground up, with no help/boosts along the way. I did take my winnings that I banked and put them back in; that was a smart move. But maybe I need more? Or, maybe I should just stick to the plan, the long term plan, and not let any short term “win big, win now” ideas get in the way. That’s the discipline…
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