How many games are decided by a half point? None. There are no wins or losses in the standings decided by a half point, at least not in any of the four major sports. However… as the world gets more familiar with the concept of the point spread, everyone will soon understand the half point decision. I’ll ask the question again. How many games are decided by a half point with the point spread? There has to be stats on this, right? Well, losing games by this half point are really painful; winning them? You feel pretty damn good. Feeling lucky punk?
I’m going to say the majority of games, and I mean like 90%+, are not decided by this slimmest of margins. If you’re betting on a side, regardless of the movement of the point spread, you’re not worrying about the half point, yet… it can be very important; it IS very important, especially when you’re talking about the winning percentage that’s required to turn a profit in this thing. Getting the best number is important; losing by a tight margin happens. Maybe the margin isn’t half a point, but it can be a point or two; the amount of times that happens surely is substantial. I’d rather not be in those coin flip type situations, but it’s inevitable. Let’s get to the reason I’m bringing this up now.
I was on the Orlando Magic +6.5 vs the Oklahoma City Thunder on Thursday night. It was the whole “NBA Cup hangover” angle; I should have done it with Cleveland vs Milwaukee on Friday night, but that’s another story. When I checked the game early on, it was a bloodbath. OKC was up by 20+; time to chalk that one up as an L. I looked back at the game and it was only a 10 point game; so you’re saying I have a chance? As it came down to the wire, OKC was up by 9 points with under a minute to play. Yep, the Magic hit a trey cutting it to 6 points, but then they fouled; well, there goes that. No free throws though; must not have been in the bonus? Still plenty of time to foul and extend the game, but… they didn’t. And the half point decision went in my favor; it feels good to be on the right side of that.
Next up was Friday night the Hornets vs the 76ers. I bet on this game early, catching 10.5 points with the Hornets. As you could imagine, I was furious when I saw not only was Miller ruled out, but now Ball was out too?!?! AND Embiid was back?!?! The line was climbing; I think it got to 14.5. There goes 4 points I’ll never get back, and knowing what I know now, I wouldn’t have placed this bet. Still, that’s why they play the games. Similar to the OKC and Orlando game, the Sixers were up huge; game over, right? Well, the Hornets pulled within striking range of the spread, and when the final whistle blew, it ended up being a 10 point difference. Two half point wins in two nights?!?! I must be living right. Well, there was the whole Ohio 20 point lead that they blew in the Friday afternoon bowl game…
Take the wins when you can get them, that’s what I say. Half point, 3 points, or 20 points, they all count the same in the DK account. I wish I kept track of all these half point decisions; certainly feel like I’ve lost more like that than I’ve won, but maybe that’s because we remember our losses more than our wins. That’s why I’m writing this down, so I can remember these two slimmest of margin victories. Ah, love the smell of victory…
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