January 9, 2015: Elite Eight

All the remaining teams in the NFL will go head to head this weekend in the 2nd round of the playoffs.  Minus Carolina, I think it’s safe to say the other 7 teams playing are the cream of the crop of the NFL.

I had a good week in my first shot at a potential new feature, picking ATS.  After losing my Arizona pick, I came back strong to win the final 3 games of the weekend.  See this is bad… another good week, and I’m going to wish I was gambling again.  This is the danger of this feature.  It’s easy to make plays with no money riding on the game.  It’s a whole ‘nother thing to pull the trigger when there is money in play.  That being said, I love picking against the spread more than anything else.  Let’s take a peek at this week’s matchups:

Baltimore +7 at New England

These teams know each other pretty well.  They’ve met 3 times at Foxboro in the playoffs since 2010, with the Ravens going 2-1.  I’m going to press my luck.  I would agree that the Patriots are the Super Bowl favorite at this point, but that still doesn’t give me the confidence to lay the 7 here at home.  Yes, they’re coming off a bye week, and yes they have Brady and Belicheck, and yes, maybe this is their last run at it… I don’t believe that last one.  I just think the Ravens are not given enough credit.  From Harbaugh to Flacco, this team has won a Super Bowl.  They have done well in the postseason.  This game comes down to a FG.  Take the points.

Seattle -11 Carolina

Blowout of the century here, unless… The only way this game is not a blowout is if the Carolina defense has the game of its season.  I don’t think the Panthers will be able to do anything on offense.  This isn’t the Seahawks team of last year, but they’re still really good.  They’re at home, starting the defense of their Super Bowl championship, against an under .500 team.  I’m guessing the crowd will be a little into it, and if Carolina turns the ball over….  it could get real ugly.  Lay the points with confidence.

Dallas +6 at Green Bay

How about them Cowboys?  They greased the right hands, and they got the game turning call, and now they win a trip to Lambeau, where the most corrupt officiating resides.  With that corrupt call they got last week, they make people hate them even more, which is just what Papa Vegas wants you to do.  Hate the Cowboys, and bet on the Pack at home.  Wrong!  The Dallas running game was stifled against Detroit, but they may have had the best running defense the Cowboys faced all year.  Green Bay… not so much.  I think they pound the ball down the Packers throat, keeping Rodgers off the field, and keeping that defense fresh for when Nelson and Cobb start running around.  Actually, the points are a gift; I’d take the ML in this game as well.  Let’s not forget the Cowboys were 8-0 on the road this year…

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Does anyone think Andrew Luck is the next big thing at QB?  Does anyone think he already IS the thing at QB?  Here is a guy who is a true franchise QB… a leader… someone who plays big in big moments.  Well, here is another chance to prove that.  Going against the guy he replaced in Indy, on the road in Denver, he gets it done.  I’m not buying Denver at all…  I like the Colts defense to hold their own actually.  I like the points, and may even think about venturing out on the ML as well, especially if my weekend was going well to this point.

Thanks for the picks last week, here is the ATS tracker:

Me  3-1

Mo 3-1

Wizzo 2-2

Al 1-3

Bring those picks again, and the winner at the end of the playoffs gets an all expense paid trip to next year’s NFL draft.  Good luck!