I like it when the games are less. Yes, it’s depressing as the NFL season winds down; it’s especially depressing when your team has tapped out for the season weeks before it ends. My love of the NFL turns to hate real quick. Yet, there is always the other enjoyment facet of watching NFL football: the gambling! Yeah, I don’t really miss it most of the time, but come playoff time… when it’s down to a few select games each weekend before getting down to THE game, it’s fun. Outside of March Madness, the NFL playoffs are one of the most enjoyable times to bet.
That brings us to the Divisional round, a pretty solid betting weekend if you ask me. When I was gambling, I never paid for picks; I never just picked any team blindly because somebody said so. I liked to read all the individual angles about a particular game, and use that to help complete my opinion about it. It worked well, sometimes. Other times, my heart got in the way, and cost me some dough. You have to be willing to admit you’re wrong about a game initially; you have to be willing to switch your original pick if everything is telling you to do so. If you’re not torn about a game, if you feel too good about a game, like so good you cannot change your mind no matter what, most likely, you’re on the wrong side. I especially don’t like listening to people not betting real money on a game. Believe me, that changes everything. So… take these or leave them. I’m not betting any money on the games, so they’re not as authentic as they could be. Just use these tidbits to help make your final decision… or not.
Minnesota +7 at San Francisco
Hey, I thought the Vikings had no chance last week; heck, we beat them twice this year. I thought the Saints were going to roll them, thus, I was on the wrong side of that pick. Impressive performance on the road against who many felt was the NFC favorite for the Super Bowl. Those who didn’t feel that way, certainly feel that the Niners are the choice; that’s where the Vikings travel this week. And certainly those people who felt the Vikings would get crushed this week, feel the same way, even stronger, this week. Well, I’m here to tell you, I’m not one of those people. I’m not betting against the Vikings again this week. I’m not going to say take the moneyline, but I do think it will be close. Take the points against the NFC Super Bowl favorite at home with a team that most feel shouldn’t even be there. SF 20 MIN 17
Baltimore -10 Tennessee
I actually thought the Titans would keep it close last week; they did… they did the unthinkable and beat the Patriots outright, helping Papa Vegas collect all that Patriots ML dough and future bets. Cha Ching! The feeling regarding the Titans was more based on how weak I thought the Pats were. It’s like, I didn’t want to publicly say it, because Brady and Belicheck have made HOF careers out of proving folks wrong, but I felt it; glad I was right this time. So the Patriot beaters Tennessee head into Baltimore to face the AFC Super Bowl favorite…. and they’re catching 10 points! At first glance, seems like a lot. At second glance, it doesn’t seem like enough. Watch Lamar continue to prove the doubters wrong. BAL 38 TEN 24
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This is the toughest game of the week to pick ATS IMO. I think Mahomes, at home, 2nd year in the playoffs, fans foaming at the mouth, ready for their shot at the Super Bowl, the Pats out of the way… blowing the doors off Houston. Then I think Watson, in a big game, can never count him out, will find a way to keep this one close. Then I think Watson and Mahomes, and we have Trubisky; I want to throw up. I’m not going to throw up, and I’m going to lean towards my Watson big game feel, as Houston eeks out a cover in KC. KC 31 HOU 23
Seattle +4.4 at Green Bay
This is where I get in trouble… my heart, my heart hating the Packers so much… waiting for them to lose so I can finally be at rest with this NFL season. How can I possibly be unbiased in this pick? Well, I’ll try. Packers ONLY favored by 4.5… at Lambeau… with the refs in their back pocket??? That just screams sucker bet. There are those folks who think Green Bay is the Super Bowl favorite; they’re stupid, but hey… with the refs anything is possible. I think about Seattle, and how they’ve went toe to toe with San Francisco, who was the cream of the crop in the NFC this year. I think if they can hang with them, the Niners who absolutely destroyed the Pack, then they can certainly hang with Green Bay. My dream is that they win on a botched onside kick recovery; wait, that already came true. My dream is that they beat the Packers straight up in a bloodbath. Reality is that this one will probably come down to the wire, hoping that the Pack season ends like the Bears did last year. SEA 20 GB 19
Good luck to all gamblers this weekend. Good luck to all the teams you bet on, unless one of them is Green Bay. Enjoy the 3rd final weekend of NFL football.
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