December 5, 2015: Toe to Toe

Picking games against the spread is not an easy thing to do. If it was, then there’d be a hell of a lot more people in Vegas doing this for a living.  I’d love to one day. For now, the ATS feature rolls on…

2-2 on the Sunday games last week. I’m standing firm. Here are the numbers:

2015 playoffs:  8-3  2015 regular season:  15-11

It’s not too bad. If I was playing one unit per game, and for argument’s sake, let’s say 1 unit was equal to $100, I’d be up $760. Remember the almighty juice on each loss of 10%.  I was killing it in the playoffs last year, but just this season alone, I’d only be up $290.  Better to be up then down, but I got robbed last week.

Arizona laid a damn egg against the Niners that roll in here Sunday, but that wasn’t the worst of it. The Seattle game was one of those punches in the stomach. Seattle completed the first down pass late.  All the Steelers needed to do was tackle the guy, and the cover was in. But noooo, they took a bad angle, and let this dude run 70 yards down the sideline.  That was some BS. But the Raiders came through as did the Broncs. To this week we go…

The weekly battle of which games to choose continues. After looking at the games, I can pick a bunch or just my strong plays. It’s not easy going toe to toe with Papa Vegas…you usually lose. So you have to get a punch in here and there, and back off. Here’s my jabs:

Bears -7 49ers

Strong play. Yes, I am a homer, but yes, I’ve been pretty accurate on the Bears all season…not perfect, but more right than wrong. As I mentioned in yesterday’s write up, my first instinct was to take the points, since the Bears have opened as the favorites for the first time this year, and 7 points at that.  But I think the focus is there, and with more talent than their opponent for a change, I think it’s an easy cover. Lay the wood baby.
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Houston +3 at Buffalo

Don’t know much about Houston. Know about the Bills only because of Rex, but this line jumps out at me. It’s a big time sucker line in my opinion. So you’re saying this game is basically a pickem?  Line so low it’s fishy, and that usually means jump on the other side…so I am.

San Diego +4 Denver

Another similar strategy on this game. Line seems low for the mighty patriot beaters against the lowly super chargers. I’d take San Diego outright in this one, but the points are always nice. Big game for Rivers against this Denver D, while Brock struggles a bit on the road in this division matchup.

Oakland +3 Kansas City

I just love these home doggies. In another AFC west divisional matchup, I’m siding with the home team catching points. Pretty evenly matched is how I see this one, but the Black Hole is a long way from Kansas Dorothy…  Arf, arf…

Another 4 pack of fun with mini write up. I used to write paragraph write ups in my covers dot com, offshore account days. Now we just tread lightly, throwing my jabs here and there, waiting to throw my haymaker. Waiting for that one game, where I empty the 401k, fly to Vegas, and pound the ever living hell out of a game. Only problem would be getting my wife to buy in…  On second thought, I’ll stick to this feature. Good luck to you sirs…