The Thursday Night Prime game was finally a good game. Buffalo at Miami is a showcase AFC East matchup. The Bills have owned the Fins. Miami choked down the stretch, allowing Buffalo to pass them for the division. This was topped off by the Bills beating them in Miami to clinch it. This game ended up sending Miami to KC for their playoff game; remember that game… how cold it was? Yeah, Dolphins were one and done. The Bills had a lot to do with that. The Dolphins should be out for blood.
I couldn’t wait for Week 2 in the NFL. In Week 1, I treaded lightly. Of course, I had opinions on most games, but strong enough to play? I bet on the Giants; that was a loser. My most confident play of the week was Tampa Bay; I put 2 units on that game… oooohh. What should my maximum bet be? I thought I had settled this question in my head; I thought that answer was 5 units. Well, I’m thinking now it should be 2 units, which is what I put on the Bucs for an easy win in Week 1. It’s just… every time I feel super confident about a game, which would lead me to place more units on it (ex. SF in the Super Bowl, SF vs Philly the year before in the playoffs). If you recall both of those games, they were losses. Every time I “take a shot” at a game, I seemingly lose. How does that work?
This is the case for discipline. Sticking to your unit play in each game. There has to be a way in your system/thinking that will prompt a larger bet on a game; is 2 units enough? It was in Week 1 for me. Now, I look at the Week 2 games, specifically this BUF-MIA matchup; I feel supremely confident in the Dolphins. 2 unit play? I placed a 1 unit bet on the Dolphins, but kept wanting to put more; I resisted… thankfully.
The Dolphins got their asses handed to them. Sure, Tua went out late (hope he’s OK), but the game was pretty much decided by then. You may have been able to hit the halftime line, or get another TD for your prop bet, but the ship had sailed for the game. The Bills looked good; the Dolphins did not. As soon as this game ended, especially with the unknown state of Tua going forward, I cashed out my division bet on Miami. It was a 2 unit play; I was able to recover 1 unit. I felt at that moment it was dead money, and I should take out what I can. This sounds like another subject to a blog… when to cash out a bet? How about in-game betting? I did a lot of that in Week 1, with a winning record I might add. Lots of things to think about when it comes to wagering on sports.
So my discipline paid off, and saved me a unit, minimally. I look at that as a win; I’m always looking at positive ways to spin this thing. I did lose on Waddle anytime TD; that was close. Thankfully, the Sun Devils came through for me, so not a total wash. OK, many more games to go, including the most important one of the week… Bears vs Texans. Let’s talk about it.
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