OK, one last talk about the Super Bowl before it begins. This is the 7th blog I’ve written about this game. It’s time to lock and load.
I’ve liked the Niners since the line came out, unlike many people, which I don’t mind. If there is any game to go against the grain, it’s this one. Still, to this day, I’m holding strong, even after hearing expert after expert on the Chiefs, including the best sports gambler of all-time Billy Walters. Actually read his book a few months back; he’s the real deal obviously. He likes the Chiefs, but it will be a small wager for him… only 500K to 1M… bravo that he believes that is a small wager. He’d look at my wagers like a penny found on the street… haha. Either way, trying to stick to my bankroll/money management principles in this game, but.. it is the Super Bowl, so I will be betting more than I typically bet.
“Can’t bet against Mahomes”… that’s a common theme from the week; it’s an easy position to take, no doubt. Mahomes is Mahomes, and when it’s all said and done, the dude will probably be among the greats. “The Niners are lucky to be here”… another common thought, although I think the Chiefs are just as “lucky”. The Dolphins in below zero degree temps who couldn’t beat anybody good all year, a Bills team with a decimated defense that took them to the brink, and an overrated Ravens squad with a bad game plan that turned the ball over multiple times. But let’s get one thing straight… neither team is lucky to be here; they both belong. When I see how the Niners got here, and think about the NFL scripting, I think… they couldn’t have done it better. They won outright in each game without covering the spread, making Papa Vegas really happy. Am I calling for a 1 point win in this one? Maybe.
I’ve talked this game up, down, and around, but at the end of the day, I feel like the Niners have more talent, especially on the offensive side of the ball, and going against Mahomes and Kelce, that’s saying something. I’ll give you the Chiefs better on defense, but the Niners are no slouch. Reid is the best coach in the game, but Shanahan is no slouch either. The other angle I keep coming back to is how this is the ultimate revenge game; the Chiefs beat the Niners in the Super Bowl in recent history. How many times do you get a chance to redeem yourself on the biggest stage against a team that has already beat you there? The Steelers did beat the Cowboys in Super Bowl 13 in a rematch of Super Bowl 10. The Cowboys did beat the Bills in back to back Super Bowls in 27 & 28. The Giants did beat the Pats in 42 & 46. OK, I’m not really making my point here… haha. Did I just talk myself out of my Niners pick?
No. Sometimes you stick with your gut and it works out; sometimes your stubbornness sinks you. I can understand all the ways the Chiefs can win the game, as described to me by expert after expert; I’m fine with that. But with all the cases made for the Chiefs, and the limited number made for the Niners… and all the bets on the Chiefs… in the biggest fixed game of the year… well, it’s no lock by any means, but if I did happen to pull out my 401K and bet it on this game…
1 unit SF -2.5, 1 unit SF -2, 1 unit SF ML -135, 1 unit SF ML -125, 2 units SF ML -122, 1 unit SF ML -120 locked for now, along with 0.5 units on each of these props: Deebo anytime TD +135, Juszczyk anytime TD +750, Deebo over 16.5 receiving yards, Juszczyk over 4.5 receiving yards, and 1 unit on Jennings over 14.5 receiving yards. So 10 units so far locked on the big game, with maybe more to come before the game, plus the live betting… Lock and load. Enjoy the game!
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