Is there such a thing as information overload? Maybe. All the crap I’ve been listening to and reading… how has that worked out for me in the NFL playoffs thus far? Well, last weekend I was 5-2 on my NFL bets. I tanked on Saturday, won all 3 plays (1 in game) on Sunday, and 2 more on Monday (1 in game). 71% hit rate… anybody would take that I think. So here we go again… Divisional Weekend. Let’s go through these one at a time.
Ravens -9.5 Texans
First game of the slate is similar to the first game last weekend. Not only that the Texans are involved, but the fact I’m bouncing around a bit here; I’m landing on the Ravens… at this time. Going against the Texans didn’t go well for me last time. Some thoughts… The last time the Ravens were a #1 seed in 2019, they blew it vs the Titans. Although they avenged that loss specifically to the Titans the following year in the playoffs, defeating them in the Wild Card round, have they really avenged losing that game after the bye week? This has to be in their heads, especially the coach and QB who remain the same. We always hear about the rest vs rust thing. With the Ravens resting their guys in the last game against the Steelers, we’re talking 3 weeks off; is this a good thing or a bad thing? Another question I’m thinking about is, has Lamar ever won a big game? Well, how do you define “big game”, because he’s never seen the Championship Round. Is it about time for this? With his new OC this year, he certainly has looked as good as he’s ever looked. He’s got the MVP locked up, now a Super Bowl? I think the Ravens will at least win this week, and by 10 or more. The Texans looked great last week against the Browns, and CJ Stroud looks legit, but now, they go on the road vs a rested #1 seed looking to prove that last time around they lost after a bye was a fluke, outdoors, in the elements… I thought the Texans had the best chance to win as a big dog on Saturday initially, and maybe part of me still does, but… not enough to sway me from taking the Ravens… but just in case, one more check… the one angle that sunk me last week, riding with the public… As of right now, there is 69% of the bets on the Texans to cover. Ok, now I feel better…
Ravens -9.5
49ers -9.5 Packers
About that other big dog on Saturday.. It’s the cheese and wow, how impressive were they against the Cowgirls? They did look good; credit where credit is due. Just remember we’re talking about the Cowboys, the playoff Cowboys… This isn’t the playoff Cowboys on Saturday night in Frisco. This is the highest rated team in the NFL. Maybe their defense isn’t as great as it was, but on offense… Yeah, we all saw Purdy shit the bed on Christmas vs the Ravens (keep that in mind in a few weeks), but before that game, he was the frontrunner in the MVP race. That night cost him, especially because it was against the other guy at the top of the list, Lamar. OK, no worries. Individual or team accomplishment preferred? Purdy is the guy that makes this powerful San Fran offense run. CMC, Deebo, Aiyuk, Kittle… will the Packers have answers for all of them? Did you see the Packer dude running his mouth about putting pressure on Purdy will lead to turnovers? #1… keep your mouth shut. #2… how does Love do under pressure, because let’s not forget about the defensive line for the Niners. Unless the refs bury the whistle and let the Packers OL hold all game (which as Bears fans, we’ve seen before), this line will pressure Love; he won’t be able to dance around back there. Who will break under pressure? Let’s not crown Love just yet, and let’s not forget who the only QB still playing that was NOT drafted in the first round, the same guy who led his team to the NFC Championship game last year before getting hurt. Place large chip on right shoulder. Make us happy against 49ers.
49ers -9.5
OK, one day down, one to go… let’s do this thing!
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