There is no sure thing; this is the only thing that is sure. No matter how good you may feel about a game, it is not guaranteed to hit; there is no secret mega lock pick. I’m always looking for one, and whenever I feel like I have one, the opposite hits; isn’t there some important information to be learned there? Yeah, when you feel super sure about a pick, go oppo; thought I knew this already… Obviously not.
I know about the “go oppo” philosophy; I’ve used that plenty of times. It seems to hit about 50-50, which in the end, is a loss due to the juice. I’ve read local articles. I’ve reviewed stats. I’ve looked at trends, both for each team, and general betting numbers. Batter pitcher matchups are fun to look at; it worked a few times. There is no one size fits all. You constantly have to adjust your lens. What works today, may not work tomorrow. I need a system. I need to start taking detailed notes about each bet, and build some sort of a database. And yes, you have to be betting for this to work. I always find it funny when a game hits that “I would have bet on”… I decided not to be on that game for a reason, so… And then there are the ones where “whew, glad I didn’t bet on that one”… it seems to be about 50-50 with those too. This is exactly what Papa Vegas wants. If everybody goes 50-50, they win; tie goes to the runner, or in this case, Papa. 50-50 isn’t the worst place to be; it just feels like you’re treading water… not making any real improvements. I had built up that $3 balance to almost $20, before going back down under $10; it’s like a fricking yo-yo. For every step forward, there is a step backward. I need to read some books…
Yeah, I was all over the Heat last night; +7.5, +8.5, MLx2, plus a Bonus Bet… all down the tubes. Technically I didn’t lose anything with the free bonus bet that was credited to my account, and I did win back one time on the halftime line, but still… 3 “units” down. My units that started at $5, climbed to $10, are now back at $1; it’s chump change really. I’m trying to learn though; how to break through… how to turn this entertainment into a “side gig” that can add some funds to my account. Sure, I’m up $250; I keep reminding myself of that. I’d like to be more consistent though; it’s not easy. Like I said, I need to read some books…
I did start reading a book; Super System 2 by Doyle Brunson. Maybe this will help me when I get in those hold’em tourneys a few weeks from now; they have to have similar info about sports betting. Time to take a trip to the library; read up about this thing here. Take some time to develop MY system; make some real bones here. To be continued… for now, Twins tonight, Panthers tomorrow night, and yes, the Heat again on Sunday night. Good luck to us all!!!
Leave a Reply